ISSN 1003-8280 CN 10-1522/R 中国疾病预防控制中心 主办
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trend of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province, China from 2012 to 2018, to predict the incidence trend, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the prevention and control measures of scrub typhus. Methods The data of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2018 were collected. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was used to establish a forecasting model, which was evaluated by comparing the observed and predicted values in 2019, and the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangdong province in 2020 was predicted using the model. Results A total of 33 490 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2018, with the incidence increasing year by year, and the cases mainly occurred in June to October. The incidence was highest in the 50-60 years group; there were more cases in females than in males, and farmers (65.49%) were the dominant occupation. The ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was fitted with the monthly case data; the Bayesian information criterion was 879.36; the residual sequence was white noise sequence according to the Ljung-Box test, and the adjusted R2 value was 0.377. The fitting effect of the model was good. The actual value in 2019 was basically consistent with the predicted value with 95% confidence interval; the model had a good predictive effect. Conclusion The scrub typhus incidence shows an increasing trend year by year in Guangdong province. The main susceptible populations were people aged 50-60 years, females, and farmers. The ARIMA model can be used to predict the changes in scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province well, suggesting that the relevant departments should strengthen the publicity and education of key population and the epidemic prevention and control in the season with high incidence of scrub typhus.
Scrub typhus is an acute febrile vector-borne infectious disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. It is transmitted by the bite of chigger mite larvae. Now scrub typhus is a relatively serious public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region, threatening the health of more than one billion people worldwide. China is one of the countries with relatively serious burden of scrub typhus. In recent years, there has been an increasing trend in the epidemic areas of scrub typhus and the number of infected cases. With the development of "3S" spatial information technologies represented by geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and global positioning system (GPS), many scholars have applied these technologies to studies on the spatial epidemic pattern of scrub typhus. This article mainly introduces the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamic trends of scrub typhus domestic and overseas, as well as the natural environmental factors and socioeconomic factors affecting the epidemic of scrub typhus, and focuses on the roles of spatial statistics and GIS technology in the epidemiological study of scrub typhus, so as to provide a reference for the future epidemiological study and the prevention and control of scrub typhus.
Vectors can transmit viruses by mechanical transmission, and some species can transmit viruses by biological means. As for whether vectors can transmit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), this article assess the risk of several categories of vectors closely related to humans in transmitting SARS-CoV-2, so as to provide a basis for developing more precise SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control measures. Based on the collected literature, the risk matrix method was used to evaluate the probability of vectors transmitting SARS-CoV-2 and determine the level of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the risk level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for different vectors in different places. The preliminary results showed that the risk of mosquitoes in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 was very low; rodents, cockroaches, and flies had a potential risk of mechanical transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and rodents also had a potential risk of biological transmission of SARS-CoV-2; the three categories of vectors had different risks of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different places, and the risk level of transmission was associated with the risk level of exposure to SARS-CoV-2, as well as the distribution, density, and activity of vectors. In general, the risk of mosquitoes in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 could be excluded; the vectors including rodents, cockroaches, and flies have a potential but low risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 in specific places and surroundings exposed to SARS-CoV-2.